Appearing as a panel member on Wednesday's CNN Tonight, CNN presidential historian Douglas Brinkley was negative on Republican efforts to replace Obamacare as he called the effort a "tar baby" for President Donald Trump and asserted that it would "gut" Medicaid and "leave 20 or 22 million people without health care." Former RNC official Mike Shields was left as the only one of four guests to offer a right-leaning point of view on the issue with the other three guests leaning left.
After host Don Lemon presented Brinkley with a recent tweet from President Trump in which he asserted that he was familiar with the health care issue, with Lemon wondering if that was true, the CNN presidential historian declared, "Of course not," and then recommended against Republicans doing health care reform as he warned:
What about 1993 when Bill Clinton tried to grab the scruff of the neck of health care -- and it blew up on him? He wasted an entire year, and led to the Gingrich Revolution in '94. I'm saying that as a cautionary note to Donald Trump -- betting all of your legislative agenda for your first year on repealing and replacing Obamacare -- particularly when you're trying to gut the Medicaid system by billions of dollars.
The liberal CNN historian added:
It's not sellable. And you only have right now about a 12 percent approval rating for the Senate plan. That's, you know, 85, 87 percent of the American people think it stinks. That's not a good hand that the President's holding right now.
Later on, Brinkley claimed that President Trump has been very unsuccessful so far as he predicted that history would judge that Republicans pushing health care reform in 2017 was a mistake:
I think the question is, Donald Trump's been President six months and hasn't been a success. When you're dealing with Congress, it's basically a zero with the exception of Neil Gorsuch. What has Donald Trump done? History is going to show he made a mistake by not going after infrastructure first. This idea of repealing and replacing -- which the Republicans have been using as a mantra with no plan in place -- has left Donald Trump out to dry not once but about three different times now.
A bit later, he further tried to undermine Obamacare replacement as he added:
Obamacare is starting to become a birth right like Medicaid and Medicare. And what people -- some people didn't like was the "Obama" on Obamacare, but they like the care. And we're not going to be able to leave 20 or 22 million people without health care. You will have an eruption not just on Youtube but all over the country.
And suddenly Donald Trump's going to be responsible for people that are sick and ill. He had promised not to touch Medicaid and Medicare on the campaign trail -- he reneged on that promise. So I think it's a tar baby, health care, for him at this juncture, and he'd be better suited to shift gears into tax reform come the fall.
The Hill editor-in-chief Bob Cusack then jumped in to voice agreement:
Yeah, listen, I think it's going to be very difficult for Republicans going forward because, either way, Democrats win. If this becomes law -- an unpopular law -- and as Douglas was saying, taking away benefits is very, very difficult, and you just can't -- as Republicans, if they don't succeed, they just can't say, "Well, it's over -- we just have to move on." They're going to have to address this eventually down the road -- whether it's after the next election -- so Republicans are kind of stuck on health care right now.
Below is a transcript of relevant portions of the Wednesday, June 28, CNN Tonight:
11:06 p.m. ET
DON LEMON: The issue, according to Peter King and to Susan Collins and a bunch of -- it's Medicaid, and they don't want to take Medicaid away from so many people who have it, and basically I think what they believe is that this particular bill is detrimental to Trump's own voters, meaning Republicans as well, and they're just not on board with it. But, Douglas, I want to bring you in because the President tweeted this today. He said: "Some of the fake news media likes to say that I am not totally engaged in health care. Wrong, I know the subject well and want victory for U.S." Do you think the President knows the subject well?
DOUGLAS BRINKLEY, CNN PRESIDENTIAL HISTORIAN: Of course not. What he knows is how to count Senate votes. And he knows right now he has nine Republican Senators opposed to the health care bill. That's a real hurdle for him. We just heard about going back, Don, to 1996. Well, what about 1993 when Bill Clinton tried to grab the scruff of the neck of health care -- and it blew up on him? He wasted an entire year, and led to the Gingrich Revolution in '94.
I'm saying that as a cautionary note to Donald Trump -- betting all of your legislative agenda for your first year on repealing and replacing Obamacare -- particularly when you're trying to gut the Medicaid system by billions of dollars. It's not sellable. And you only have right now about a 12 percent approval rating for the Senate plan. That's, you know, 85, 87 percent of the American people think it stinks. That's not a good hand that the President's holding right now.
(...)
11:28 p.m. ET
BRINKLEY: I think the question is, Donald Trump's been President six months and hasn't been a success. When you're dealing with Congress, it's basically a zero with the exception of Neil Gorsuch. What has Donald Trump done? History is going to show he made a mistake by not going after infrastructure first. This idea of repealing and replacing -- which the Republicans have been using as a mantra with no plan in place -- has left Donald Trump out to dry not once but about three different times now. Now, we're rushing into the Fourth of July. He's doing an emergency meeting. Mitch McConnell's being hammered by just about everybody because he's pushing this without the votes. As Donald Trump said, it's more work and it's harder than you think.And that's because Obamacare is starting to become a birth right like Medicaid and Medicare. And what people -- some people didn't like was the "Obama" on Obamacare, but they like the care. And we're not going to be able to leave 20 or 22 million people without health care. You will have an eruption not just on Youtube but all over the country. And suddenly Donald Trump's going to be responsible for people that are sick and ill. He had promised not to touch Medicaid and Medicare on the campaign trail -- he reneged on that promise. So I think it's a tar baby, health care, for him at this juncture, and he'd be better suited to shift gears into tax reform come the fall.
LEMON: Bob Cusack, did you want to get in on this conversation?
BOB CUSACK, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF THE HILL: Yeah, listen, I think it's going to be very difficult for Republicans going forward because, either way, Democrats win. If this becomes law -- an unpopular law -- and as Douglas was saying, taking away benefits is very, very difficult, and you just can't -- as Republicans, if they don't succeed, they just can't say, "Well, it's over -- we just have to move on." They're going to have to address this eventually down the road -- whether it's after the next election -- so Republicans are kind of stuck on health care right now.
