Are the liberal media rooting for a return to lockdowns and increased unemployment? As former CNS News writer (and now RNC spokeswoman) Liz Harrington tweeted in reaction to despicable comments Friday morning from CNN Newsroom co-host Poppy Harlow, it sure seems like some are at least willing to speculate about it.
Harlow began an interview with White House Council of Economic Advisers chair Kevin Hassett by suggesting that Saturday’s Trump rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma would lead to increased unemployment and more lockdowns based on the chances it would a significant rise in coronavirus cases.
Try and follow Harlow’s gross logic about the rally singlehandedly causing more economic ruin:
Look, your role is on the economy so we'll stick to that. But this ties into the economy. It certainly does, because the unemployment rate, according to BLS in Oklahoma, is 13.7 percent. That's a historically high [sic] for them. You’ve got this huge rally gathering that — tomorrow for the President that Martin just outlined that could lead to a jump in cases. That's what science tells us. That could lead to more of a shutdown in Oklahoma. We'll see and that could lead to higher unemployment. Is the White House thinking about that?
To bolster her case, this was the chyron: “Coronavirus Pandemic; 23 States Report Case Spikes Amid Fears Nation Reopened Too Early.”
Hassett didn’t take the bait, explaining that the White House receives readouts on data from across the country and that they do see “about 18 states right now where the positivity rates are going up” but “[t]here are some mitigating factors though that suggest we’ve learned a lot about the virus.”
As Harrington also observed, one could see “how disappointed the anchor is while Kevin Hassett explains we are not seeing a correlation between spikes in cases and reopening states.” Here was a sampling of what he had to say (click “expand”):
HASSETT: One of them is that the increase in cases is — is way sharper than the increase in hospitalizations or deaths and the other thing we're seeing in the data that we get every day is let me say two things. One is that the average age of positive cases is declining and so what's going on is that the younger folks who feel safer because they think the symptoms won't be so bad if they get them are going out more than the older folks and so that's it and then the final point is that the spikes aren't necessarily correlated where we're seeing less social distancing and more economic activity. And so for example —
HARLOW: Wow. Okay.
HASSETT: — there's a concern in Hawaii and in Oregon and they're still pretty shut, those states.
HARLOW: Okay.
HASSETT: And so of course, you know, we want to scramble health resources to them as well, but it's not necessarily correlated with opening up. In fact, last point. Indiana — Indiana is opening up. Their credit card sales are actually above where they were last year by three percent but they're not seeing a spike I think because in Indiana they're being super aggressive about following the guidelines.
After Harlow asked Hassett if he would wear a mask if he were attending a Trump rally (and he said he would wear one), Harlow used Florida’s case count to not only infer that they should have been locked down longer, but wonder whether the administration would be “prepared for another economic downturn” if there’s a nationwide spike.
Seeing as how even the unemployment rate took a surprising dip in May (for the good), Hassett noted that while one should prepare “for everything that might happen,” it’s unfair to focus on one possible outcome when most economists were significantly off in their May predictions.
Harlow tried again to predict the future with Hassett and this time focusing on what unemployment would look like on Election Day. Once again. Hassett urged caution (click “expand”):
You know, I think — let's just talk about October because I'm not an election forecaster. The thing is that, right now, it came in at 13 percent [in May] and, as you know, I thought it would be about 20. And so what's happening is that we have the biggest negative shock followed by the biggest positive stimulus ever and economists are really puzzled about it. I think when we see the June number if it goes back up toward the higher number that I thought we were going to see in May, then I'm going to have a much different picture. So right now, I think the first thing there's so much uncertainty, but I guess we should continue to see, like, June should go down.
(....)
The average economic missed May by 10 million people and when you make a miss — and I was about the average economist so that number....[R]ight now, economists need to be humble and recognize when we have got so many states — I think 17 states where credit card spending is above where it was last year already, that it suggests that this — this economy is really, really coming back way faster than I thought.
To see the relevant CNN transcript from June 19, click “expand.”
CNN Newsroom with Poppy Harlow and Jim Sciutto
June 19, 2020
9:31 p.m. Eastern[ON-SCREEN HEADLINE: Coronavirus Pandemic; 23 States Report Case Spikes Amid Fears Nation Reopened Too Early]
POPPY HARLOW: Look, your role is on the economy so we'll stick to that. But this ties into the economy. It certainly does, because the unemployment rate, according to BLS in Oklahoma, is 13.7 percent. That's a historically high [sic] for them. You’ve got this huge rally gathering that — tomorrow for the President that Martin just outlined that could lead to a jump in cases. That's what science tells us. That could lead to more of a shutdown in Oklahoma. We'll see and that could lead to higher unemployment. Is the White House thinking about that?
KEVIN HASSETT: I think that what we do every day, Poppy is, as you know, and we’ve talked about this is that we get a complete readout of all the data for every state in the U.S., you know, and D.C. and if you look at the bigger picture, you see that there are about 18 states right now where the positivity rates are going up which means that if the cases are going up, it's not just because you're doing more testing, so it's actually correct that there are places that are of concern. There are some mitigating factors though that suggest we’ve learned a lot about the virus
HARLOW: Yeah.
HASSETT: One of them is that the increase in cases is — is way sharper than the increase in hospitalizations or deaths and the other thing we're seeing in the data that we get every day is let me say two things. One is that the average age of positive cases is declining and so what's going on is that the younger folks who feel safer because they think the symptoms won't be so bad if they get them are going out more than the older folks and so that's it and then the final point is that the spikes aren't necessarily correlated where we're seeing less social distancing and more economic activity. And so for example —
HARLOW: Wow. Okay.
HASSETT: — there's a concern in Hawaii and in Oregon and they're still pretty shut, those states.
HARLOW: Okay.
HASSETT: And so of course, you know, we want to scramble health resources to them as well, but it's not necessarily correlated with opening up. In fact, last point. Indiana — Indiana is opening up. Their credit card sales are actually above where they were last year by three percent but they're not seeing a spike I think because in Indiana they're being super aggressive about following the guidelines.
HARLOW: Okay. Well, following the guidelines, you're a mask wearer, you wore a mask. You’ve been wearing a mask in the White House.
HASSETT: Sure.
HARLOW: And I wonder if you think everyone at the rally tomorrow should wear a mask just like your friend Larry kudlow said.
HASSETT: That’s what — you know, if I were at the rally, I would wear a mask.
HARLOW: Okay.
HASSETT: If I wondered about that, I would ask my doctor for advice.
HARLOW: Alright.
HASSETT: If I — but —
HARLOW: Alright. Okay, so you would wear a mask at the rally tomorrow
HASSETT: I would definitely do it. Yeah.
HARLOW: You said yourself this week there are a number of states that give you pause. You mentioned some positive signs but you’ve one in six COVID cases in the state of Florida that has aggressively opened up that are now hospitalizations and when comes to the economy, you told me a few weeks ago said if there's a quote/unquote second wave, “the economy will take another hit for sure.” Is the White House prepared for another economic downturn?
HASSETT: As, you know, we’ve been talking about for about three months now that I’ve been back, you know, we have absolutely done scenario analysis for everything that might happen. In fact, it's one of the reasons why the president wants to have the phase four negotiations at the end of July rather than right now because we're learning so much every day. And so if there is a second flare-up that's, you know, bigger than what we have seen and the economy does have to move towards more shutdown —
HARLOW: Yep.
HASSETT: — then of course we need a bigger stimulus bill.
HARLOW: Okay so —
HASSETT: And so I think absolutely we're doing scenario planning.
(....)
9:35 p.m. Eastern
HASSETT: I think it's highly unlikely that the unemployment will get back to the historic lows of January between now and end of the year.
HARLOW: Huh. What do you think the unemployment rate, Kevin, is going to be on election day?
HASSETT: You know, I think — let's just talk about October because I'm not an election forecaster. The thing is that, right now, it came in at 13 percent and, as you know, I thought it would be about 20. And so what's happening is that we have the biggest negative shock followed by the biggest positive stimulus ever and economists are really puzzled about it. I think when we see the June number if it goes back up toward the higher number that I thought we were going to see in May, then I'm going to have a much different picture. So right now, I think the first thing there's so much uncertainty, but I guess we should continue to see —
HARLOW: But, but you told Dana —
HASSETT: — like June should go down. I would say —
HARLOW: — but you told Dana Bash I remember a few weeks ago that it could be around 20 percent unemployment in November, around the election. You — you — not taking that off the table?
HASSETT: I think that's highly unlikely now because things were so surprising, right. The average economic missed May by 10 million people and when you make a miss — and I was about the average economist so that number, as you know, I spoke with Dana on the show saying about what the consensus forecast was. And so right now, economists need to be humble and recognize when we have got so many states — I think 17 states where credit card spending is above where it was last year already, that it suggests that this — this economy is really, really coming back way faster than I thought. Even before I came back to the White House, I remember being on your show and talking about how negative the outlook was.
HARLOW: Except that you hope it's — except that you hope it's people buying things on credit cards and they can pay for it and not going into debt.
