First we had a former national chairman of the Democratic National Committee laughing over the effect of Hurricane Gustav hitting New Orleans would have on Republicans as they prepared to hold their convention this week. Now we have a writer for The New Republic, Nate Silver, worried in the other direction in an article titled, "How Gustav Could Benefit the Republicans." Silver lists the ways he perceives that Republicans could benefit from this storm:
1. Allows McCain to Appear Magnanimous. By potentially delaying or canceling his "date" at the GOP convention, McCain appears as though he is giving something up to tend to the Gulf Coast. Sympathetic and neutral-to-sympathetic media outlets may view this as underscoring McCain's "America First" theme.
And if McCain didn't delay the GOP convention, the MSM would have been screeching about how "heartless" Republicans just don't care about people.
2. Lowers Expectations Bar. The selection of Sarah Palin as the VP nominee has forced the GOP to shift abruptly from a "Ready to Lead" theme to an "America First" theme. While it is difficult to say whether one of these themes was intrinsically stronger than the other, odds are that a lot of speeches had to be re-engineered, probably rendering them less effective upon delivery. Gustav, however, may give the GOP a built-in "excuse" for more off-the-cuff, hastily-organized speeches.
I'm not even sure what Silver is saying here but perhaps he is microanalyzing his perceived politics of this hurricane a bit too much.
3. Removes the Bush problem. The further Mr. 30% is from St. Paul, the better off the Republicans will be.
Perhaps we better keep Ms 9%, Nancy Pelosi and the rest of Congress well away as well.
4. Do-Over. Americans have short memories, and a relatively more successful response to Gustav could allow the GOP to argue that it has redeemed itself for the mistake of Katrina.
Maybe it never occurs to Silver that the GOP would just prefer not to politicize hurricanes.
5. Crisis Mentality May Benefit McCain. By appearing in New Orleans, and perhaps even delivering his acceptance speech from there, McCain will have the opportunity to appear "presidential". Rather than asserting to that he is ready to lead -- an assertion that was undermined the the selection of Palin -- he may hope to give the appearance of actually demonstrating such leadership.
A hurricane hits Louisiana and Silver uses it as a platform to launch a cheap potshop at Sarah Palin. However Silver is still far from letting go of his injection of Hurricane Gustav into politics:
This is not to say that there aren't risks to the Republicans. There is a fine line between responding to tragedy and appearing to exploit it, and any gaffes by McCain, Palin or Bush could quickly alter the narrative. Gustav has yet to pass through the Gulf of Mexico's oil platforms, and any sort of spill could substantially undermine support for their offshore drilling initiatives. Finally, there is an opportunity cost involved. Although the Republicans may appear to be effective in responding to Gustav, they may not be able to emphasize certain other themes which might also have been effective uses of their free national airtime.
I hate to be the one to inform Nate Silver but Gustav's winds were lower than expected so there will be little effect on the drilling platforms. As a result, no spills and no benefit to his beloved Democrats. The hurricane has passed inland, causing less damage than expected. Normally such a storm story shouldn't intrude into politics but Silver just can't let go with his microanalysis:
What should the Democrats to in response? They face some of the same risks that the Republicans do in terms of appearing to exploiting tragedy -- at present, in fact, Mr. Obama appears inclined to avoid creating a political spectacle of any kind on the Gulf Coast. However, it is imperative that they emphasize McCain's marginal track record on hurricane-relief and hurricane-protection measures. A riskier tact, which would probably need to be carried out through carefully-disciplined surrogates, would be to suggest that McCain only cares about such disasters when it is politically opportune for him to do so. Alternatively, Obama could attempt to preempt McCain by championing bipartisan relief and recovery efforts -- whether carried out through legislation or other means like volutneerism -- and asking (or challenging) McCain to join him.
Hey Nate, how about if in the future we just replace the Weather Channel's Jim Cantori with a team of political pundits whenever a hurricane hits the coast?
