Jon Stewart aired a long satire segment on Wednesday bashing Fox News and Megyn Kelly for suggesting the Democratic health-care reform bill was unpopular. But when Stewart turned to actual data instead of humor, was he innocent of manipulating the polls? A quick look proves Stewart and his researchers mangled the poll numbers he used on screen. Near the very end of his Megynoscopy, poll numbers ran past Stewart's head as he said:
Numbers don’t lie. Now sure, with polling, you can always come in with caveats like ‘well, it depends on how the question was asked’ or you could point to other polls showing that Americans do want the health care reform bill [Laughter] , and that a majority favor the public option, and a plurality support this bill’s actual provisions once the provisions are explained to them. [Audio available here.]
Anyone reading the small print on screen (which might require a rewind) can see that The Daily Show wasn't proving Americans "do want the health-care reform bill." Instead, Stewart was citing two poll questions that asked merely if Congress should "keep trying to pass" a health plan or should Congress "give up."
Even conservatives might choose "keep trying to pass" with the idea that conservative reforms might be considered. Choosing "give up" sounds cynical and negative.
Stewart ran an ABC News-Washington Post poll number that 63 percent should keep trying to pass a plan. But the actual money question of Yes or No on the health plan in that February poll was 47 percent in favor, 49 percent opposed.
Stewart also ran a February Quinnipiac University poll that 52 percent favor the "keep trying" option over the "give up" option. That poll is much more dramatic: 35 percent favor the current bills in Congress, while 54 percent disapprove.
Now add Stewart’s biggest stretch: his poll that a majority favor a public option – 59 percent in a CBS/New York Times poll – is from December 4 to 8. Speaking of "how the question was asked," it was the usual do you favor "the choice" of a public option "to compete" with private health plans?
"Would you favor or oppose the government offering some people who are uninsured the choice of a government-administered health insurance plan -- also known as a 'public option' -- that would compete with private health insurance plans?"
The fourth poll Stewart featured was the lamest (and one we already took apart): that a "plurality" support the bill’s provisions "once they’re explained to them." But their original numbers in that February Newsweek poll were 40 percent in favor, 49 percent opposed – before Jon Meacham’s hired pollsters started listing all the favorable-sounding things and pushed people again to switch their opinion.
If the best argument liberals like Stewart can make is that perhaps Democrats should pass a health care bill that a "plurality" supports after pushed around by pollsters, then the desperate spinners are not the Fox News personnel.
