Demography may not always be destiny, but according to Slate’s Jamelle Bouie, the “best bet” is that over the next decade-plus, the Republican party as a whole will move towards the center-right as young, relatively moderate voters join and elderly right-wingers shuffle off this mortal coil.
In a Monday article, Bouie predicted that “eventually, the GOP will find a working national majority, even if the country becomes as brown and liberal as some analysts project.” That said, he added, “the real question” is “whether a future, younger Republican Party will still have a conservative movement.”
By 2024 or 2028, Bouie remarked, a successful GOP will be “substantially different from the one that exists today” because it will be “responding to a different set of voters than it has now. In all likelihood, it’s reconciled itself to the reality of the welfare state…It’s more permissive on public morality—tolerant of same-sex marriage, for instance—but still a home for more traditional voters who oppose abortion and are uncomfortable with rapid social change.”
“The future will have a Republican Party, and it will be conservative,” concluded Bouie. “It just won’t be the same kind of Republican Party with the same kind of conservatism.”
From Bouie’s piece (bolding added):
Republican voters are disproportionately elderly, and it’s safe to assume a large slice of the party’s voters will die by 2016. At the same time, at least since 2008, the number of young people who become Republicans has declined from its earlier highs. Barring a major shift in the youth vote from its allegiance to the Democratic Party (young voters reject Republicans, 35 percent to 65 percent), Democrats will pick up 2 million new voters in 2016…
…[A]s much as Republicans are at a demographic disadvantage, it is also true that their ultimate performance [in 2016] depends on the fundamentals: If Obama’s approval rating declines and the economy hits a snag, then voters will turn against Democrats and Republicans will recover the White House, even as they struggle to replace their core supporters…
…Eventually, the GOP will find a working national majority, even if the country becomes as brown and liberal as some analysts project. Put differently, the real question of Republicans and elderly voters isn’t if the party will die—the only time a major party “died” is when it was killed by sectional disputes around slavery—it’s whether a future, younger Republican Party will still have a conservative movement.
Right now, the GOP is a mass vehicle for ideological, small-government conservatism, which Republicans pursue across all branches of government across the entire country. Gov. Rick Scott’s agenda in Florida looks a lot like Gov. Scott Walker’s in Wisconsin, which in turn will influence any Republican who becomes president in 2016. And this conservatism is fueled by the older, white base of the Republican Party which disdains liberal priorities and liberal voters—from union members to immigration activists—with terrible ferocity.
What happens when those voters disappear from national electorates, as they will over the next decade? And what happens if the next cohort of Republican voters—their children and grandchildren—have more liberal views on social issues and the economy? Does movement conservatism survive as the dominant ideological force in the Republican coalition? Or will new Republican voters—from young white transplants to states like Arizona to upwardly mobile Latino immigrants in Georgia—adopt and change conservatism to meet their needs?
Your best bet is for the latter. Any Republican Party that drives [sic] in 2024 or 2028 is one that looks substantially different from the one that exists today. No, that doesn’t mean it’s a diet version of the Democrats, but that it’s responding to a different set of voters than it has now. In all likelihood, it’s reconciled itself to the reality of the welfare state and works to alter its shape and incentives. It’s more permissive on public morality—tolerant of same-sex marriage, for instance—but still a home for more traditional voters who oppose abortion and are uncomfortable with rapid social change.
Demographic trends and social movements can fracture coalitions and create new ones. But—barring catastrophe—the parties survive. The future will have a Republican Party, and it will be conservative. It just won’t be the same kind of Republican Party with the same kind of conservatism.
