Historian Allan Lichtman may be the media’s favorite election prognosticator. Prior to November, he had correctly predicted nine of the last ten presidential elections correctly, only missing George W. Bush’s narrow 2000 win. Therefore, when he predicted a Kamala Harris victory, media giants, like Google, made sure to promote him. However, he got it wrong, and when The Daily Show’s Grace Kuhlenschmidt confronted him about it on Comedy Central’s Thursday show, he blamed “misogyny, racism, [and] xenophobia.”
Trying to imitate those who reacted to Lichtman’s incorrect prediction with indignation rather than an understanding that nobody's perfect and sometimes you’re just wrong, Kuhlenschmidt asked, “What are some of your excuses?”
Lichtman replied, “I definitely think I was thrown off by pushing Biden out. We’ve never seen a sitting president, the elected nominee, forced out. So that leaves me to perhaps reevaluate my call on the contest.”
Kuhlenschmidt then switched roles, “See, yeah, I knew that was stupid, and I was going to tell you, but I didn't want to womansplain.”
Attempting to be more serious, Lichtman added, “The broader point is, I do think Harris's race and gender played a role here. There are deep strains within this country of misogyny, racism, xenophobia.”
Switching personas yet again, Kuhlenschmidt embraced her dumb person schtick, “I wish you had told me that the first time. Could have maybe thrown that in there.”
Donald Trump did better with black and women voters and worse among white voters against Harris than he did Joe Biden, so empirically speaking, Lichtman is just wrong, but attacking the voters’ character helps liberals avoid any self-examination after they lost to the man they remind everyone is now a convicted felon and label a threat to democracy for a second time.
Here is a transcript for the January 16 show:
Comedy Central The Daily Show
1/16/2025
11:14 PM ET
GRACE KUHLENSCHMIDT: Last time I was in Washington, D.C., was just two months ago, which feels like a lifetime. I was so young and naive, looking for answers.
What is your prediction for this election, 2024?
And Allan Lichtman gave them to me.
ALLAN LICHTMAN: Kamala Harris will become the first woman president.
KUHLENSCHMIDT: But Allan Lichtman was wrong.
…
KUHLENSCHMIDT: What are some of your excuses?
LICHTMAN: I definitely think I was thrown off by pushing Biden out. We’ve never seen a sitting president, the elected nominee, forced out. So that leaves me to perhaps reevaluate my call on the contest.
KUHLENSCHMIDT: See, yeah, I knew that was stupid, and I was going to tell you, but I didn't want to womansplain.
LICHTMAN: The broader point is, I do think Harris's race and gender played a role here. There are deep strains within this country of misogyny, racism, xenophobia.
KUHLENSCHMIDT: I wish you had told me that the first time. Could have maybe thrown that in there.
