Wednesday marked the historic day that MSNBC Contributor John Heilemann would hold Morning Joe panelists to a standard of honesty rarely seen on the show. When hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski interpreted a transparently inconsequential poll as a portent of a Trump defeat in 2020, Heilemann objected, soundly dismissing both the poll and their analysis of it.
Brzezinski led off the segment by summarizing the findings:
As multiple Democrats consider running for President in 2020, new numbers from Democratic firm Public Policy Polling finds that President Trump is stuck in hypothetical general election matchups, polling consistently at 39 or 40% no matter who he's polled against.
Scarborough attempted to use the poll as a catalyst for an in-depth analysis of President Trump’s 2020 electoral chances. “It’s going to be hard to actually find any candidate that you could put Donald Trump against," he surmised, then added, “You could put him against Kermit the Frog and he wouldn’t get over 40 percent, would he?”
“Kermie!” Brzezinski chimed helpfully.
To Scarborough’s disappointment, Heilemann had other ideas. “With all due respect to my friends at Public Policy Polling,” he began with a caveat, “this is one of the dumbest polls I’ve seen in a long time.” His fellow panelist Mike Barnicle laughed in agreement and thanked him for his observation.
Heilemann went on:
It’s a poll where you’ve got Donald Trump's approval rating on one column, basically. He's at 39. We know that. Thirty-nine or 40 right now, in his approval rating, and they're matching him up against a bunch of Democrats, all of whom are going to over-perform him because right now, Donald Trump's not popular.
The Democratic number matches his national disapproval number basically, and his number in the head to head matches his approval rating nationally. It doesn't really tell you anything. Except for, if you look at the Democrats relative to each other, the ones who have the highest name ID have the biggest percentage, and the ones who have the lowest name ID have the lowest percentage.
“This poll tells us what we already know,” he concluded. “Donald Trump: unpopular. That’s about it. Sorry.”
Scarborough broke the ensuing silence with an uncomfortable chuckle, at which point Brzezinski decided to improvise: “Okay. Well.” She continued awkwardly, “The Kermit the Frog reference, that came because Joe actually has been watching the Muppets.” The two hosts then launched into a bizarre discussion of their television viewing habits.
Such moments of honesty are rare among cable pundits – as evidenced by the rest of the panel’s willingness to subsequently engage the poll as a credible predictor for the still-distant Presidential election. Brzezinski and Scarborough’s cartoonish antics aside, Heilemann deserves credit for his candor.
