On October 2, the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. payroll employment increased in September by a seasonally adjusted 142,000 jobs. That was disappointing enough, but then the BLS's regional and state report for September released on Tuesday showed a combined total of 21,000 jobs lost in all 50 states and DC.
In his coverage of the state report, the Associated Press's Christopher Rugaber didn't report this wide variance, even though the monthly national vs. total state difference is usually much smaller. The closest he got was reporting that more states lost jobs than gained them, which should have piqued his curiosity about how that result could happen when the nation somehow gained as many jobs as it did during the month, but apparently didn't (bolds are mine):
MORE THAN HALF OF US STATES REPORT JOB LOSSES IN SEPTEMBER
Most U.S. states reported jobs losses in September as slowing growth has weighed on hiring nationwide in the past two months.
The Labor Department said Tuesday that hiring increased in just 20 states last month, the fewest since March. Twenty-seven states lost jobs and three reported no change.
Still, unemployment rates fell in 37 states and rose in just seven. Six states said their unemployment rates were unchanged.
Total U.S. hiring faltered in August and September as manufacturers struggled with the impact of the strong dollar and weak growth overseas. At the same time, U.S. consumers have spent cautiously. Growth likely slowed sharply in the July-September quarter to an annual rate of about 1.3 percent, from a 3.9 percent pace in the second quarter.
... Texas reported the nation's biggest job gain in September, adding 26,600. The gains occurred in a range of industries, including retail, shipping, education, health care, and hotels and restaurants. New York added the second-most, with 12,000.
Many states with job losses also said their unemployment rates fell. That can occur if some unemployed stop looking for work, perhaps out of discouragement or because they return to school or stay home with family.
Here's the detail for both the seasonally adjusted and raw (i.e., not seasonally adjusted) figures:
Besides the seasonally adjusted 162,700-job difference seen in the table, there are two additional factors, neither considered by Rugaber, which would cause one to think that downward revisions to reported payroll figures might be on the way, and that future months might be worse.
The first relates to the trend in prior-month revisions. When August's originally reported figure of 173,000 came in, almost everyone (except yours truly) had no doubt that it would be revised upward in September. There was some reason to believe this, since there were several significant upward August revisions in previous years. But it didn't happen; instead, August was revised downward by 37,000 jobs (47,000 jobs before seasonal adjustment); July also came down by 22,000. The point is that if the slowing economy really is affecting hiring, which even Rugaber has acknowledged, BLS isn't picking it up very well in its initial reports, indicating that we may be due for more downward revisions during the next few months.
Along those lines, the 136,000-jobs difference in raw job additions in the national vs. state reports is also troubling. If that difference carries into October's national report, September itself may be revised downward to a very small gain.
The second relates to September's raw numbers. As I noted in a NewsBusters post after the national employment report's release, September 2015 was the worst year in the past five years and six years for total nonfarm jobs gains and private-sector job losses, respectively. If that trend continues, we'll likely see seasonally job additions below 100,000 — or worse — in the coming months.
Finally, Rugaber reported that Texas outperformed every other state in September by miles, but failed to note that this occurred despite well-known energy industry challenges. How does the Lone Star State continue to excel in the face of those headwinds, adding 225,000 seasonally adjusted jobs in the past 12 reported months? Perhaps the Obama administration should start imitating Texas instead of constantly demonizing it.
Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.
