Late Monday afternoon, the Associated Press's Martin Crutsinger produced a typically dodgy dispatch on the government's Monthly Treasury Statement. The Treasury Department released the March version of that report covering the first six months of the current fiscal year early Monday afternoon.
The odd thing is, while it has been published elsewhere at the web sites of certain of its subscribers, a search on "budget deficit" (not in quotes) at the wire service's national site indicates that it's not present there at all. The national site's only mention of March's deficit is in the sixth of 13 listings at a "Business Highlights" summary. It reads as follows (bolds are mine throughout this post):
US budget deficit expanded slightly in fiscal first half
WASHINGTON (AP) - The deficit through the first half of the budget year ran slightly above last year's pace, with the March imbalance up $16 billion over a year ago.
The Treasury Department said Monday that the March deficit came to $52.9 billion compared to a deficit of $36.9 billion in March 2014.
Through the first six months of the budget year, the deficit totaled $439.5 billion, 6.3 percent higher than last year's six-month deficit of $413.3 billion.
The Congressional Budget Office is forecasting a full-year deficit of $486 billion, roughly on par with 2014's deficit of $483.4 billion.
Items appearing earlier in the AP "Business Highlights," and thus seemingly more important, include "What's in a hotel name?"; "Veggies take center plate as healthy fast food chains expand"; and "Airline passengers have more to complain about, report finds."
"Slightly" is an interesting term for a 6.3 percent increase in the deficit, especially since Crutsinger and others at the AP often describe economic growth of 3 percent as "healthy," and even occasionally as "robust."
More to the point, the numbers disclosed above show how difficult it will be for the government to meet or beat the CBO's deficit forecast. The defcit for this year's final six months will have to be $46.5 billion or less ($486 billion minus $439.5 billion) for that to happen. That's significantly less than last year's final six-month deficit of $70.1 billion ($483.4 billion minus $413.3 billion). It would seem to be about even money at this point that the fiscal 2015 deficit will top $500 billion, especially with, as will be seen shortly, spending rolling along at an average rate of $310 billion per month. If that level of spending continues, Uncle Sam will have to sustain a 7 percent increase in collections for the rest of the year — even though, as an AP reporter wrote earlier this month, "the economy has been flagging for months."
Meanwhile, a separate item containing "FIGURES ON GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND DEBT," published two hours after the Treasury Department released its March report, only contains figures for receipts and outlays through February.
The AP, aka the Administration's Press, may be trying to limit the visibility of information damaging to the Obama administration. The following paragraphs from Crutsinger's full report reveal that the government has seen a spike in collections through the first six months of this year — and has proceeded to spend all of it, and then some (numbered tags are mine):
US budget deficit in fiscal first half rose 6 percent to $439.5 billion
... The latest budget report showed that government revenues over the last six months totaled $1.42 trillion, up 7.3 percent from a year ago. Government spending over the same period totaled $1.86 trillion, an increase of 7.1 percent over the previous year. [1] Spending on Medicare rose 8 percent, and spending on Medicaid shot up 23 percent. [2]
The 2014 deficit was down from $680.2 billion in 2013. Before 2013, the U.S. had recorded four straight years of annual deficits above $1 trillion, reflecting the impact of a severe financial crisis and the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. [3]
President Barack Obama in February unveiled a budget proposal for 2016 — his final full year in office — that seeks authorization from Congress to spend $4 trillion next year. It projects a 2016 deficit of $474 billion.
Obama's spending plan would raise $2 trillion in higher taxes over the next decade [4] from the wealthy, corporations and smokers while granting tax breaks to low-income and middle-income families.
... Republicans have attacked Obama's proposals for the tax increases and a failure to ever reach balance. [5] Last month, they pushed through the House and Senate broadly similar measures that claim to erase the deficit entirely over the next decade.
Notes:
[1] — Crutsinger seems to want readers to be impressed that the the percentage inrease in spending is less than the percentage increase in receipts. The fact is that the spending increase dwarfs the collections increase, and that collections and spending are both chugging along at roughly triple the economy's real rate of growth:
[2] — Well, why did spending on Medicaid increase so much? The Congressional Budget Office's answer is ... Obamacare, i.e., because "... most of the provisions of the Affordable Care Act that led to increased enrollment in Medicaid went into effect in January 2014 and therefore did not affect the program’s spending in the first few months of fiscal year 2014."
Specifically, Obamacare's Medicaid expansion has increased the number of participants in states which chose to expand. Additionally, Healthcare.gov has forced visitors to enroll in Medicaid if the web site's system concludes that they qualify, and does not allow those pushed into the program to opt out.
Of course, Crutsinger wouldn't report any of this, and just let the outrageous increase sit there unexplained.
[3] — As usual, Crutsinger didn't mention the falsely advertised "temporary" increases in Obama's early-2009 stimulus plan, which really morphed into a massive permanent increase in annual baseline government spending.
[4] — Also as usual, the AP reporter failed to note the very important fact that Obama wrangled significant tax increases out of Congress in early 2013. But he's spent it all, so he needs to go to the well yet again. How a little fiscal restraint instead?
[5] — Pointing out that Obama's budget never balances — in fact, its projected deficits never goes below $463 billion in any fiscal year, and it projects cumulative 2016-2025 deficits of $5.67 trillion — is not an "attack," Marty. It's an observation.
To be clear, Crutsinger's story is present at the AP's "Big Story" site. But it is not on its front page, and a search there on "budget deficit" (not in quotes) indicates that it is buried so deeply that only the most industrious will ever find it.
Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.
